Pleasant Surprises Portend Past Mistakes

Due to personal commitments over the next week, I will not be posting. Instead there will be a series of articles by guest contributors. The following contribution is from he goes by the alias "Livid Met Fan"


LHisanori Takahashi logged a very convincing performance in his second start last night, tossing 6 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts and only 5 hits allowed (see side-note below). The Phillies (looking remarkably flat) had no answer for his change-up, and were as equally frustrated as was “the team that plays in the Bronx” was in his last start. Takahashi is one of several “pleasant surprises” for the Mets in the early months of this 2010 season. Add to that list a tremendous start from “Hot Rod” Barajas. So why are these performances cause for alarm? Because we’ve seen how these “pleasant surprises” lead to poor decision making before.

Omar Minaya and the rest of the front office have a proven track record of extrapolating aberrational performances. Mistaking a stop-gap solution for a long-term strategy is a dangerous proposition, and the Mets have wandered down this road many times before. Don’t know what I’m talking about? Think Jose Valentin. Think Fernando Tatis. Or if you want to go back further, think Timo Perez.

Let me just say that I am by no means a disciple of Sabermetrics, “Moneyball” or the Theo Epstein revolution. But I do believe in statistical analysis as a means of building your program, and am fully convinced that Omar makes no effort in this regard. If he did, he wouldn’t consistently make the costly mistake of carrying forward anomalous fortune. As in, “Valentin hit .270 last year with 24 HRs, pencil those stats in for next season.” Takahashi might be a genuine #4 or 5 starter, but there is nothing to support that his performance can maintain at this level for long. In reality, I think once the scouting on Takahashi steps up, we won’t be seeing these shutout performances come July. Ditto for “Hot Rod,” who we should all prepare to come crashing down to earth over the next couple of weeks. Barajas is a career .240 hitter, has demonstrated ~20 HR potential, but the idea that he stays on pace for 30 is ludicrous.

The point is, in recent weeks, the Mets have adopted the mantra that they are “one arm away from being contenders.” I respectfully disagree. Factor out the anomalies, outliers and stop-loss performances and this is a team with much deeper deficiencies. Obviously the new youth movement is full of promise (Ike, Meijia, Pagan, Niese), but this team needs to make some serious upgrades before we can even begin to discuss the playoffs. (“Playoffs?!)

Side-note: I attended last night’s shutout of the Phillies at a very steamy Citi Field. Maybe it was the unseasonable humidity or an extra chatty performance from this unbearable woman who sits behind our season ticket seats, but in spite of a tremendous overall performance, watching Takahasi was absolutely brutal. Call him the Japanese Steve Trachsel. This guy really takes his time out there. I don’t know if it translated to TV, but the crowd got very restless as the game progressed and the delay between pitches got longer and longer. Consider yourself warned: watching Takahashi live is BRUTAL.